Short answer, no.
I, like everyone else, can get annoyed with volatility.
But it is just part of the investing game.
Do not go out and sell everything.
Because the market will just bounce back, again and again.
Time in the markets beats all.
Portfolio @close on 11/7/2025
Monday started off good, portfolio gained another 3% by 930 am.
Then from there it just slowly started to go down.
I even got down from $101,200 on Monday morning to $90,200 on Friday morning.
And then it rallied back up.
$META ( ▼ 0.82% ) Continued to fall all the way down to $602, then bounced back up to $625.
I took advantage and added to my LEAP positions, and I also bought 2 LEAPs on $QQQ ( ▲ 0.12% ) . And I bought 100 shares of $IREN ( ▲ 2.0% ).
They crushed earnings by the way.
I have covered all of these stocks over the past few weeks.
When you know what you are invested in, volatility will still scare you, but you will have greater confidence in your positions while others panic.
This is how you stay in the game for the long term.
And a lot of moving parts last week.
The government is still shut down. Elections, and a plethora of other things.
This all takes a toll on the stock’s day-to-day pricing.
Now,
On to my weekly stock pick.
I only have 1 this week I feel is important, and that is $LMND ( ▲ 0.66% ).
Why I think $LMND ( ▲ 0.66% ) is a buy.
Disruptive business model & growth potential
Lemonade operates a digitally-first insurance platform (renters, homeowners, pet, and increasingly auto & life) that aims to simplify insurance via tech and AI.
It is targeting younger demographics (i.e., first-time insurance buyers) with a low-friction model—this offers an opportunity for growth in lifetime customer value as those customers “grow up” and buy more types of cover.
The company has called out guidance of achieving positive adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026, which signals a roadmap from growth → profitability.
Operational improvement trends
Lemonade has been showing improving loss ratios (which measure how much of the premium gets paid out in claims) and contends that its tech-driven model gives it a structural advantage.
They’ve achieved accelerating growth in key metrics: e.g., In-Force Premiums/Insurance-FP growth, customer counts increasing, revenue growth. c) Large market & white-space
The insurance market is huge. Traditional insurers are large but legacy-bound; a nimble digital insurer like Lemonade can potentially take share via superior experience, lower cost base, and younger customer base.
Cross-sell/upsell opportunities: once you acquire a customer in one product (renters), you can expand into homeowners, auto, pet, life, etc. This “ecosystem” lens is often cited in their strategy.
Points to watch/ considerations.
Being bullish does not mean ignoring the risks. Here are the headwinds and what to monitor:
Despite growth, Lemonade remains unprofitable and has negative EPS.
Valuation is stretched in relation to traditional insurance peers, and the market is demanding proof of meaningful margin improvement + scaling for the future.
Analyst targets and consensus are mixed: many see downside in the near term and rate the stock as “Hold” or even “Sell.”
Execution risk: underwriting losses, claims spikes (e.g., natural disasters), and regulatory/insurance-industry risks could derail margins.
Macro & interest-rate risk: If rates rise, discounting future growth becomes less friendly; consumer behaviour may change.
Outlook & what could drive the upside
If the bullish thesis plays out, here's how things might unfold:
As Lemonade continues growing premiums, improving loss ratios, and lowering cost per customer, the “path to profitability” becomes clearer, which typically drives re-rating of growth stocks.
If they successfully scale auto insurance (which has historically been more profitable than renters/home), that could be a big catalyst. Some commentary suggests that auto growth is “picking up steam.” Lemonade+1
Geographic expansion / new product launches could unlock incremental growth.
If the market shifts toward favouring “fintech/insurtech” again and high-growth names rally broadly, Lemonade stands to benefit.
How / when to position for a bullish trade
Remember, I sell options. mostly.
Cash secured PUTs/Covered Calls, or vertical spreads, or I will buy a LEAP call option.
1. Identify favourable entry conditions
Wait for a pullback or consolidation in LMND stock price (which reduces cost basis) OR a catalyst (e.g., earnings beat + guidance improvement).
Monitor technical support zones (e.g., if price falls near major moving averages or prior lows) to improve risk/reward.
Also watch for implied volatility (IV) in the options chain: if IV is high (due to fear or big event) you might get a better pricing for long options; if IV is low you might get a better cost for LEAPs.
LEAP / long-term options strategy
Since I also like long positions / LEAPs, I might buy LEAP calls (12+ months out) in LMND. For example: purchase a Jan or Feb 2027 (or 2028) call with a strike slightly in-the-money or at-the-money, depending on cost and conviction. 70-80 Delta
Alternatively, if insurance is uncertain and you want defined risk, consider a call spread (buy LEAP call, sell a higher strike far out) to reduce cost.
Another income angle: if you’re comfortable owning the stock, I might sell cash-secured puts at a strike below the current price, collect premium, and if assigned, you get shares at a discount with long-term upside exposure.
3. Size & risk management
Since LMND is still a higher-risk growth play, limit position size relative to your core holdings.
Maintain a margin of safety: e.g., you might allocate ⅔ of your “planned size” at entry and leave ⅓ to add on further pullback (DCA strategy).
4. Potential trigger/catalyst list
Quarterly earnings beat + upward guidance.
Clear path to profitability: positive free cash flow, improving margin.
Auto product scaling or a new geography announced.
Major partnership or tech advancement (AI underwriting etc) that gives a cost advantage.
Sector rotation back toward growth/insurtech.
In short
If you believe in the long-term (3-5 year) growth story of Lemonade's disruptive model, digital first, large market, AI/tech leverage, then $LMND offers a speculative but potentially powerful opportunity.
The key is timing the entry, managing risk, and having patience (given the profitability path is still unfolding).
If you read this far, thank you.
I have a group you can join that is $39.99 a month.
I guarantee you’ll make more than that in your first month by a long-shot.
Or watch some of my videos on YouTube.
Or do neither, I am in this specifically to help others build wealth and increase their knowledge in doing so.
As always, Jesus is THE way.
And
Trade smart.